The Prediction Ledger

The coronavirus is the common cold, folks. … It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump.

The prediction

COVID was no more serious than a common cold and a political hoax that would fade once its usefulness against Trump passed.

What actually happened

COVID-19 killed more than 1.1 million Americans, becoming one of the deadliest events in U.S. history.

SourcesPolitiFact·Washington Post

They're scaring the living hell out of people, and I see it, again, as like, oh, let's bludgeon Trump with this new hoax.

The prediction

COVID concern was a manufactured 'hoax' weaponized against Trump. (Nine days later Hannity denied ever calling it a hoax; the recording contradicts him.)

What actually happened

The pandemic was real and lethal at massive scale; Hannity himself soon urged viewers to take it seriously.

SourcesWashington Post·Media Matters

[Hydroxychloroquine] would act almost like a prophylactic … prophylactic use that actually helps prevention of contracting the disease.

The prediction

Hydroxychloroquine could prevent people from contracting COVID.

What actually happened

Controlled trials (RECOVERY, WHO SOLIDARITY) found no benefit; the FDA revoked its emergency authorization on June 15, 2020, citing lack of efficacy and cardiac risk.

SourcesMedia Matters - Fox & HCQ

[Hydroxychloroquine] can be prescribed widely as a prophylactic, a preventative against getting the virus at all.

The prediction

Widely-taken hydroxychloroquine would prevent COVID infection. Ingraham lobbied Trump on the drug; Twitter deleted a related post as misleading.

What actually happened

HCQ showed no preventive or therapeutic benefit; FDA revoked the EUA in June 2020.

SourcesMedia Matters·Daily Beast (deleted post)

I feel like the more I learn about this, the less there is to worry about.

The prediction

COVID was becoming less concerning - implying it would not be a major threat.

What actually happened

Days later the country shut down; the virus became a mass-casualty event.

SourcesMedia Matters

The patented nanosilver we have … the Pentagon has come out and documented … kills the whole SARS-corona family at point blank range.

The prediction

His silver-based products and toothpaste would kill coronavirus.

What actually happened

No evidence the products treat or prevent COVID; the NY Attorney General issued a cease-and-desist and the FDA/FTC warned the claims were fraudulent.

SourcesNY Attorney General·CBS News

[New York has] developed enough community immunity that they're no longer having the pandemic … enough immunity in New York City to actually stop it.

The prediction

NYC had effectively reached herd immunity and would not see another wave.

What actually happened

New York suffered a large second wave in winter 2020–21; the city was nowhere near herd immunity. Fauci rebutted him directly at the hearing.

Note: Politician appearing as a media figure; claim widely amplified across conservative media.

SourcesFactCheck.org·NBC News

More than 3,000 people have died from the COVID-19 vaccines. The actual number is almost certainly higher than that.

The prediction

COVID vaccines were killing thousands and were far more dangerous than acknowledged.

What actually happened

Carlson misused raw VAERS reports, which log any death after vaccination regardless of cause (his examples included a car crash and a suicide). No causal link at that scale; the vaccines are estimated to have prevented millions of deaths.

SourcesFactCheck.org·PolitiFact

If VAERS is off by 99%, that would mean 1.2 million people died after getting the vaccine. … [Recipients] could have issues with fertility.

The prediction

The vaccine was causing mass death (potentially over a million) and would cause widespread infertility and lifelong harm.

What actually happened

No mass-death or mass-infertility event occurred; extrapolating VAERS by '99% underreporting' is statistically baseless. Deaths continued to come overwhelmingly from COVID itself, disproportionately among the unvaccinated.

SourcesMedia Matters·Experts rebut (Newswise)

Don't think of it as a vaccine. Think of it - at best - as a therapeutic … that must be dosed in advance of illness. And we want to mandate it? Insanity.

The prediction

The vaccine would not reduce infection or transmission; separately, he had earlier predicted U.S. deaths would not exceed 500,000.

What actually happened

Vaccines sharply reduced severe disease, hospitalization and death (and, pre-Omicron, transmission). U.S. deaths passed 1.1 million. The Atlantic dubbed him 'the pandemic's wrongest man.'

Note: The exact wording of his '<500,000 deaths' prediction is well-documented but not quoted verbatim here.

SourcesNewsweek

The amount of sheer panic that seems to be roiling the public is overstated based on the available information.

The prediction

Public concern about the pandemic was overblown.

What actually happened

The pandemic proved far more severe than the framing suggested.

Note: A downplaying/framing statement rather than a hard dated forecast; included with that caveat.

SourcesSalon

On November 3rd, the Fed hits the Weimar moment. … Come next year, you are going to see prices skyrocket.

The prediction

Weimar/Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and a dollar collapse after the Fed's quantitative easing - with gold as the safe haven (Beck was a paid Goldline spokesman).

What actually happened

Hyperinflation never came; CPI ran roughly 1–3% for years. Gold peaked around September 2011 and then fell for years, hurting late buyers who followed his advice.

SourcesMedia Matters

[The coming crisis will] make 2008 look like a Sunday school picnic.

The prediction

An imminent dollar collapse and runaway inflation destroying the U.S. economy.

What actually happened

The predicted collapse repeatedly failed to arrive over more than a decade; the dollar stayed the world reserve currency and U.S. equities set repeated record highs.

Note: Schiff makes open-ended 'coming soon' calls that resist a single falsification date; verbatim wording confirmed.

SourcesFox Business

Everyone who ever goes out shopping for groceries knows that prices have risen significantly over the past year or so.

The prediction

The Fed's QE2 money-printing would drive significant/runaway inflation.

What actually happened

PolitiFact rated it Mostly False - grocery prices had risen only ~1.4% year-over-year, among the slowest on record. QE2 produced no such inflation.

Note: Politician who was a paid Fox contributor at the time.

SourcesPolitiFact

There's no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It's not going to happen.

The prediction

No recession; a continuing 'Bush boom.'

What actually happened

The Great Recession - the worst downturn since the 1930s - officially began that very month and ran to June 2009. Kudlow later said 'I plead guilty.'

SourcesKudlow column archive·Washington Examiner

When President Obama was elected, the market crashed. … Trump was up 9%, President Obama was down 14.8%.

The prediction

That electing Obama itself crashed the stock market.

What actually happened

PolitiFact rated it False. The Dow moved less than ~2% on Obama's actual election day; the 14.8% reflected the ongoing 2008 financial crisis over months, not a reaction to his win.

SourcesPolitiFact

Biden's big government socialism has turned a booming economy into a bust.

The prediction

An economic 'bust' / collapse under Biden's agenda. (Trump surrogates likewise predicted a Biden win would 'crash' the market.)

What actually happened

Unemployment fell to a ~50-year low (3.4% in early 2023), GDP grew, and markets repeatedly hit record highs. The 2021–22 inflation spike gives the criticism partial cover, so not a clean miss.

Note: Falsified on growth/jobs/markets; inflation gives it partial cover - flagged Medium.

SourcesFox Business·Snopes (market-crash prediction)

[Obamacare's] 'death panels' … and an insurance-market 'death spiral' that would collapse healthcare.

The prediction

Government 'death panels' rationing care, an irreversible market 'death spiral,' and economic destruction from the ACA.

What actually happened

'Death panels' was PolitiFact's 2009 Lie of the Year - no such panels exist. The predicted death spiral never came; ACA enrollment climbed to record highs (~20–24 million by the mid-2020s).

Note: 'Death panels' coined by Palin (Aug 2009) and amplified nightly across Fox; wording paraphrased.

SourcesMedia Matters·FactCheck.org

These policies are going to set the city back decades. … [An] 'Escape From New York' business exodus.

The prediction

A mass 'stampede' of businesses and the wealthy out of NYC to Florida/Texas if Zohran Mamdani won.

What actually happened

By spring 2026 (~6 months in), the exodus 'failed to materialize.' Two top real-estate CEOs said no one was leaving because of Mamdani; the wealthy stayed, unlike the COVID-era outflow.

SourcesFox News·CNBC

[Mamdani would bring] the biggest crime wave New York will ever have seen … the complete destruction of New York City. (Hannity)

The prediction

Surging violent crime and civic collapse under Mayor Mamdani.

What actually happened

In his first five months, NYC crime hit record lows: murders down ~21% (a record low for the period), major crime down ~10.6%, subway crime down >6%, public housing at its safest year on record.

SourcesMedia Matters (with NYPD data)

This is how communism starts.

The prediction

NYC descending into 'communism' - after Mamdani's office gave routine heat-wave advice to set ACs to ~78°F.

What actually happened

Standard public-health guidance during heat waves (federal agencies had said the same); no descent into communism. Rhetorical fearmongering rather than a datable forecast.

Note: Primary page (HuffPost/Yahoo) was rate-limited; the quote is corroborated across multiple outlets.

SourcesAOL/HuffPost

I'm going to release the Kraken.

The prediction

Overwhelming evidence that Dominion/Smartmatic machines switched millions of votes, overturning the 2020 result and flipping GA, MI, WI, AZ to Trump.

What actually happened

Every 'Kraken' suit was dismissed; no fraud was proven; her team was sanctioned (SCOTUS left sanctions in place). In 2023 she pleaded guilty in Georgia to misdemeanor conspiracy counts.

SourcesReason·CBS News (sanctions)

It will be 9-0, down comes election. In August, here comes Donald Trump, our real president. … By the morning of Aug. 13, it will be the talk of the world.

The prediction

The Supreme Court would rule 9-0 to 'take down' the 2020 election and reinstate Trump by August 13, 2021.

What actually happened

Nothing happened on August 13; the Court took no such action and has no such power. Lindell repeatedly moved the date ('this fall,' 'Thanksgiving'). Dominion sued him for defamation.

SourcesNewsweek·Salon (Reinstatement Day)

I would expect the Trump administration is going to take down the hammer. … Do a deep dive into these ballots.

The prediction

Trump's legal challenges would overturn the result and prove outcome-reversing fraud.

What actually happened

The result stood; no fraud altered it. Bartiromo was a named figure in Dominion's defamation case, which Fox settled for $787.5 million.

SourcesFox News Radio·Media Matters

[Amplified Powell's 'Kraken' claims; asserted 'many' were trying to 'steal' the election from Trump, who had 'rightfully' won.]

The prediction

Fraud would be exposed and the result would not stand.

What actually happened

No fraud overturned the election. Dobbs was individually named in the Dominion and Smartmatic suits; his show was canceled in Feb 2021.

Note: Quotes are close paraphrase from on-air coverage.

SourcesMediaite·Daily Beast

How he stays out of prison or prosecution is beyond me. If he's not prosecuted, I would be stunned.

The prediction

Multiple prosecutions and prison for 'Obamagate' / Spygate figures.

What actually happened

The one FBI lawyer charged (Kevin Clinesmith) got probation, not prison; the Flynn 'leaker' was never charged. Durham's probe produced no prosecutions of the officials Bongino targeted.

SourcesWestern Journal·AP via NY1 (Durham outcome)

[The Trump–Russia origins are] probably the biggest scandal in U.S. presidential history.

The prediction

The Durham investigation would expose massive criminality and jail Obama-era officials (Obama/Clinton/Comey circle).

What actually happened

Durham's four-year probe ended in 2023 with one guilty plea (probation) and two acquittals - no charges against any senior official. Trump had called it 'the crime of the century.'

Note: 'Biggest scandal' framing verbatim; the specific prosecution-prediction wording is paraphrased.

SourcesCNN (Durham report)·AP via NY1

All of the foundational issues are there for the Republicans to have a wave election. … RED TSUNAMI COMING?

The prediction

A Republican 'red tsunami' wave in the 2022 midterms.

What actually happened

No red wave. Democrats expanded their Senate majority (50→51); Republicans took the House only narrowly. Hannity later claimed he couldn't recall who started the 'red tsunami' talk.

SourcesHuffPost·Daily Beast

Not just a red wave, but a red tsunami. (Cruz) … [McEnany forecast a] 'big red wave.'

The prediction

A sweeping GOP wave/tsunami in the 2022 midterms.

What actually happened

It fizzled into a narrow House gain and a Senate loss - described across outlets as a 'red trickle.'

SourcesFox News (Cruz)·Fox News (result)

Trump will beat Clinton by landslide proportions. (2016) … Trump is not losing the election. (Oct 2020)

The prediction

A Trump landslide over Clinton (2016) and a Trump win in 2020.

What actually happened

Trump lost the 2016 popular vote by ~2.9M (no landslide) and lost the 2020 election outright (306–232, ~7M popular-vote deficit).

SourcesThe Hill (2016)·Western Journal (2020)

They are coming in with diseases such as smallpox and leprosy and TB. (Dr. David Ward)

The prediction

The 2018 migrant caravan would import outbreaks of smallpox, leprosy and other diseases.

What actually happened

Smallpox was globally eradicated in 1980 - no one could carry it. NPR's on-the-ground reporting found 'flu, blisters, but definitely not smallpox'; no caravan-driven outbreak occurred.

SourcesMedia Matters·NPR

[Wealthy liberals] don't have to worry about the crime and the disease, and all the other problems brought into a geographical area because of a crush of humanity.

The prediction

The 2018 caravan would import crime and disease.

What actually happened

No caravan-driven crime wave; border-area and national crime did not spike. Immigrant crime rates remained below native-born.

SourcesMedia Matters

[The caravan was repeatedly labeled an] 'invasion' - with 33+ hours of Fox airtime and ~5,000 troops deployed.

The prediction

An imminent mass breach flooding into the U.S.

What actually happened

No invasion - the caravan dwindled and arrived piecemeal in Tijuana over weeks. Fox mentions fell 83% the week after the midterms, and Trump's post-election proclamation dropped the word 'caravan' - revealing it as election messaging.

SourcesThe Wrap·Quartz

They're going to get shipped in and we'll get another round of MS-13.

The prediction

The caravan would stream in unimpeded and deliver another MS-13 crime wave.

What actually happened

Participants were overwhelmingly families fleeing violence, not gang members; asylum processing was slow/restricted; no MS-13 wave materialized.

SourcesBreitbart·Media Matters

There is a migrant crime spree killing Americans … (Watters). This bloodbath is reaching every single corner of our country. (Hannity)

The prediction

A nationwide migrant-driven crime spree, concentrated in migrant-receiving cities.

What actually happened

Violent crime and murder fell nationally in 2023–2024; NBC News found crime dropping in the cities that received the most bused migrants; NYC saw no violent-crime rise despite 150,000+ migrants.

Note: Quotes via Media Matters transcripts; worth spot-checking against original clips.

SourcesMedia Matters·Brennan Center

[Democrats are] trying to replace the current electorate … with new people, more obedient voters from the Third World.

The prediction

Immigrants are imported as locked-in Democratic voters to engineer a permanent Democratic majority ('Great Replacement').

What actually happened

Contradicted in 2024 - Pew's validated-voter analysis found Trump won 48% of Hispanic voters (up from 36% in 2020) while the Democratic share fell from 61% to 51%. The 'guaranteed Democratic bloc' mechanism did not hold.

Note: Falsifies the electoral-outcome claim specifically; the Latino electorate remains volatile.

SourcesADL·Pew Research (2024 voters)

Our biggest cities will revert to what they were 50 years ago. Broke, dirty, and dangerous.

The prediction

Demographic change / immigration would drive major cities into decay and danger.

What actually happened

Major cities didn't collapse into lawlessness; sanctuary cities didn't collapse; national violent crime fell in 2023–2024.

Note: Framed partly around 2020 unrest, so less purely immigration-specific - supporting evidence.

SourcesMedia Matters

If the law says that any man, if he chooses, can enter a women's restroom … you're opening the door for predators.

The prediction

Trans-inclusive restroom access would 'open the door for predators' preying on women and girls.

What actually happened

No wave of assaults occurred. The 2018 Williams Institute (UCLA) study found trans-inclusive laws 'do not affect the number or frequency of criminal incidents in restrooms.' PolitiFact rated the framing Mostly False.

Note: Politician; claim carried widely across conservative media during the HB2 fight.

SourcesPolitiFact·Williams Institute (UCLA)

A man shouldn't be able to enter the women's restroom … this policy encourages sexual predators and puts women and children in danger.

The prediction

Target's trans-inclusive policy would 'encourage sexual predators.'

What actually happened

No measurable increase in assaults; law-enforcement officials in multiple states reported no link between these laws and bathroom crimes.

SourcesChristian Post·Media Matters (bathroom-myth guide)

Why would we spend $1.5 billion on that when for the same amount of money, we could build another USS Wasp?

The prediction

Transgender military care would cost ~$1.5 billion - a crippling, warship-sized expense.

What actually happened

Off by 2–3 orders of magnitude. RAND estimated $2.4–8.4 million/year; DoD reported ~$8 million total from 2016–2019 (<0.02% of its health budget). No bankruptcy.

SourcesMedia Matters·PBS NewsHour

Transgender ideology is just one of many social justices that have caused a lot [of] problems for troop cohesion and ability to fight wars.

The prediction

Trans troops damage unit cohesion and warfighting ability.

What actually happened

RAND found 'little or no impact on unit cohesion, operational effectiveness, or readiness.' After Biden reversed the ban in 2021 (~15,000 trans personnel), no readiness collapse followed.

SourcesMedia Matters·RAND

There will be no more women's leagues. … The extinction of women's sports is on the horizon.

The prediction

Trans inclusion would eliminate women's leagues entirely.

What actually happened

Women's sports hit historic highs - the 2024 NCAA women's basketball final drew a record ~18.7M viewers; the WNBA shattered viewership records. No leagues eliminated.

SourcesMatt Walsh (Blaze)·Sports Illustrated

So, [Lia] Thomas has destroyed female sports as we know it.

The prediction

Women's sports already 'destroyed' by a single trans swimmer.

What actually happened

Not destroyed - record women's basketball and WNBA viewership followed in 2023–2025.

Note: A declaration ('has destroyed') rather than a dated forecast.

SourcesMedia Matters

The moment you allow biological men into women's sports, it's the end of women's sports.

The prediction

Trans inclusion would end women's sports.

What actually happened

Women's sports entered their strongest commercial era, with record NCAA, WNBA and NWSL numbers in 2023–2025.

SourcesFox News

This is a nationwide - we're gonna use the word - epidemic and everyone is too embarrassed to mention it.

The prediction

A spreading nationwide childhood-transition 'epidemic.'

What actually happened

Medical transition of minors is rare: a 2024 JAMA/Harvard Chan study found gender-affirming surgeries at 2.1 per 100,000 for ages 15–17 (zero for ≤12), and <0.1% of adolescents receive gender-affirming medications.

Note: Verbatim quote; whether it's a 'prediction' vs. characterization is judgment-dependent.

SourcesLGBTQ Nation·Harvard Chan (JAMA study)

[Trans youth are] increasing at tens of thousands of percent … extraordinarily socially contagious rates of trans and queer identification.

The prediction

Runaway, non-organic, socially contagious growth in trans identification.

What actually happened

The share is small single digits (Williams Institute: ~1.4% of teens in 2022 → ~3.3% in 2025), not 'tens of thousands of percent.' A 2022 Pediatrics study (CDC data) found no evidence of social contagion.

Note: Substance solid; exact wording via Media Matters transcript.

SourcesNBC News (contagion study)·Media Matters

We could soon see pastors being brought up on hate crime charges for preaching from the Bible.

The prediction

Same-sex marriage would lead to criminal prosecution of pastors for sermons or for refusing to officiate.

What actually happened

No U.S. pastor has been charged with a hate crime for preaching or declining to officiate; preaching is core protected First Amendment speech.

SourcesSalon

Unless we bow down and accept their agenda … the LGBTQ agenda, then they'll take our tax exempt status.

The prediction

Government would strip churches' tax-exempt status over LGBTQ views.

What actually happened

No church has lost tax-exempt status for opposing same-sex marriage; the IRS took no such action and no such law passed.

SourcesCBN·Snopes

You would let everybody get married who want to get married. You want to marry a turtle, you can.

The prediction

Same-sex marriage would logically extend to marrying animals.

What actually happened

Marriage equality became law (Obergefell, 2015); no human–animal marriage exists anywhere in the U.S.

SourcesMedia Matters

Love affairs between men and animals are going to be absolutely permitted. Polygamy, without question, is going to be permitted.

The prediction

Obergefell would force the legalization of bestiality and polygamy.

What actually happened

Neither was legalized; both remain illegal nationwide.

SourcesMetro Weekly

As of today, free exercise is toast. (Bryan Fischer) … Some may go to prison as the years unfold. (James Dobson)

The prediction

Obergefell would end religious free exercise, imprison believers, and force churches to perform same-sex weddings.

What actually happened

Free-exercise protections were reinforced (Masterpiece Cakeshop 2018; 303 Creative 2023); the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act protected clergy from being compelled. No church compelled; no one imprisoned.

Note: Wording sourced to the Americans United 'Obergefell at Five' compilation, not primary audio.

SourcesAmericans United

There are actual cities like Birmingham that are totally Muslim, where non-Muslims just simply don't go in.

The prediction

Whole Western cities were Muslim-only 'no-go zones' off-limits to non-Muslims.

What actually happened

Birmingham was ~22% Muslim / 46% Christian. PolitiFact rated it 'Pants on Fire'; UK PM Cameron called Emerson 'a complete idiot'; Emerson apologized.

SourcesPolitiFact·BBC

Europe will be semi-Islamic in its politico-cultural character within a generation.

The prediction

Western Europe would be effectively Muslim-dominated within roughly a generation.

What actually happened

A generation later, no Western European nation is Muslim-majority; Muslim fertility converged toward national averages and the 'Eurabia' thesis was rejected by demographers.

SourcesForeign Policy (Eurabian Follies)

This next presidency, mark my words, this next presidency, we will see martial law.

The prediction

The administration beginning in January 2017 would bring martial law.

What actually happened

No martial law was declared during the Trump presidency (2017–2021).

SourcesGlennBeck.com (own site)

[Jade Helm 15 was] the beginning stages of martial law - a federal takeover of Texas and the Southwest.

The prediction

A U.S. military exercise would trigger a federal takeover of Texas, martial law, gun confiscation and mass arrests.

What actually happened

Jade Helm 15 was a routine special-ops training exercise (Jul–Sep 2015) that ended with no takeover, no martial law, no confiscation. The Pentagon: 'We are not taking over anything.'

Note: Jones's exact wording paraphrased; the non-event is well documented.

SourcesPolitiFact·Snopes

[A re-elected Obama would] erase the Second Amendment from the Bill of Rights and excise it from the U.S. Constitution.

The prediction

A hidden second-term Obama plan to abolish gun rights and confiscate firearms.

What actually happened

Obama served a full second term untouched; the Second Amendment stood; his 2013 background-check bill failed in the Senate; gun sales rose.

SourcesMedia Matters

[God told him] major cities and possibly millions of people will be affected … mass killing … sometime after September.

The prediction

A catastrophic terror attack on the U.S. in late 2007, possibly killing millions.

What actually happened

No such attack occurred.

SourcesCBS News

If I heard the Lord right about 2006, the coasts of America will be lashed by storms … something as bad as a tsunami in the Pacific Northwest.

The prediction

Devastating storms and a possible Pacific Northwest tsunami in 2006.

What actually happened

No U.S. tsunami occurred; the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was notably mild.

SourcesFox News

[Trump]'s going to win. That's, I think, a given. … [followed by war and an asteroid to] 'end it all.'

The prediction

Trump reelection followed by an end-times sequence culminating in an asteroid strike.

What actually happened

Trump lost to Biden; no asteroid. Robertson later conceded Biden won and told Trump to 'move on.'

Note: Asteroid detail paraphrased; election claim widely reported.

SourcesThe Hill

If it happens, there will be a civil war in the United States of America. The Christians will finally come out of the shadows.

The prediction

A Christian-led civil war triggered by Trump's impeachment.

What actually happened

Trump was impeached twice; no civil war followed.

SourcesThe Hill

They just created it for this week … They're in the middle of a hoax, they're perpetrating a hoax.

The prediction

The 'polar vortex' was a term invented by liberals/media to prop up global-warming claims.

What actually happened

The polar vortex is a long-established meteorological phenomenon; 2014, 2015 and 2016 each set successive global heat records. PolitiFact rated his framing false.

SourcesPolitiFact·Grist