The Grifters Club

Rush Limbaugh

The Rush Limbaugh Show (syndicated radio)

high confidenceFeb 24, 2020

The coronavirus is the common cold, folks. … It looks like the coronavirus is being weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump.

The prediction

COVID was no more serious than a common cold and a political hoax that would fade once its usefulness against Trump passed.

What actually happened

COVID-19 killed more than 1.1 million Americans, becoming one of the deadliest events in U.S. history.

SourcesRush Limbaugh archive (transcript)·PolitiFact·Washington Post

Sean Hannity

Hannity (Fox News)

high confidenceMar 9, 2020

They're scaring the living hell out of people, and I see it, again, as like, oh, let's bludgeon Trump with this new hoax.

The prediction

COVID concern was a manufactured 'hoax' weaponized against Trump. (Nine days later Hannity denied ever calling it a hoax; the recording contradicts him.)

What actually happened

The pandemic was real and lethal at massive scale; Hannity himself soon urged viewers to take it seriously.

SourcesWashington Post·Media Matters

Sean Hannity

Hannity (Fox News)

high confidenceMar 18–19, 2020

[Hydroxychloroquine] would act almost like a prophylactic … prophylactic use that actually helps prevention of contracting the disease.

The prediction

Hydroxychloroquine could prevent people from contracting COVID.

What actually happened

Controlled trials (RECOVERY, WHO SOLIDARITY) found no benefit; the FDA revoked its emergency authorization on June 15, 2020, citing lack of efficacy and cardiac risk.

SourcesMedia Matters - Fox & HCQ

Laura Ingraham

The Ingraham Angle (Fox News)

high confidenceMar 16 & 20, 2020

[Hydroxychloroquine] can be prescribed widely as a prophylactic, a preventative against getting the virus at all.

The prediction

Widely-taken hydroxychloroquine would prevent COVID infection. Ingraham lobbied Trump on the drug; Twitter deleted a related post as misleading.

What actually happened

HCQ showed no preventive or therapeutic benefit; FDA revoked the EUA in June 2020.

SourcesMedia Matters·Daily Beast (deleted post)

Pete Hegseth

Fox & Friends Sunday (Fox News)

high confidenceMar 8, 2020

I feel like the more I learn about this, the less there is to worry about.

The prediction

COVID was becoming less concerning - implying it would not be a major threat.

What actually happened

Days later the country shut down; the virus became a mass-casualty event.

SourcesMedia Matters

Alex Jones

The Alex Jones Show / Infowars

high confidenceMar 10, 2020

The patented nanosilver we have … the Pentagon has come out and documented … kills the whole SARS-corona family at point blank range.

The prediction

His silver-based products and toothpaste would kill coronavirus.

What actually happened

No evidence the products treat or prevent COVID; the NY Attorney General issued a cease-and-desist and the FDA/FTC warned the claims were fraudulent.

SourcesNY Attorney General·CBS News

Rand Paul

U.S. Senator & frequent Fox commentator (Senate hearing, broadcast)

high confidenceSep 23, 2020

[New York has] developed enough community immunity that they're no longer having the pandemic … enough immunity in New York City to actually stop it.

The prediction

NYC had effectively reached herd immunity and would not see another wave.

What actually happened

New York suffered a large second wave in winter 2020–21; the city was nowhere near herd immunity. Fauci rebutted him directly at the hearing.

Note: Politician appearing as a media figure; claim widely amplified across conservative media.

SourcesFactCheck.org·NBC News

Larry Kudlow

CNBC's "Squawk Box"

high confidenceJun 22, 2020

There is no second wave coming. It's just hot spots. They send in CDC teams, we've got the testing procedures, we've got the diagnostics, we've got the PPE. And so I really think it's a pretty good situation.

The prediction

That no second wave of coronavirus cases was coming to the United States.

What actually happened

The U.S. logged its first 100,000-case day on November 4, 2020 and its first 200,000-case day on November 28, 2020 - a fall-winter surge that dwarfed the spring wave within months of the statement.

SourcesCNBC·CBS News

Charlie Kirk

The Charlie Kirk Show (Turning Point USA)

high confidenceJun–Jul 2021

If VAERS is off by 99%, that would mean 1.2 million people died after getting the vaccine. … [Recipients] could have issues with fertility.

The prediction

The vaccine was causing mass death (potentially over a million) and would cause widespread infertility and lifelong harm.

What actually happened

No mass-death or mass-infertility event occurred; extrapolating VAERS by '99% underreporting' is statistically baseless. Deaths continued to come overwhelmingly from COVID itself, disproportionately among the unvaccinated.

SourcesMedia Matters·Experts rebut (Newswise)

Alex Berenson

Author & frequent Fox News guest (Twitter/Substack)

high confidence2020–2021

Don't think of it as a vaccine. Think of it - at best - as a therapeutic … that must be dosed in advance of illness. And we want to mandate it? Insanity.

The prediction

The vaccine would not reduce infection or transmission; separately, he had earlier predicted U.S. deaths would not exceed 500,000.

What actually happened

Vaccines sharply reduced severe disease, hospitalization and death (and, pre-Omicron, transmission). U.S. deaths passed 1.1 million. The Atlantic dubbed him 'the pandemic's wrongest man.'

Note: The exact wording of his '<500,000 deaths' prediction is well-documented but not quoted verbatim here.

SourcesNewsweek

Ben Shapiro

The Ben Shapiro Show / Daily Wire

medium confidenceMar 2020

The amount of sheer panic that seems to be roiling the public is overstated based on the available information.

The prediction

Public concern about the pandemic was overblown.

What actually happened

The pandemic proved far more severe than the framing suggested.

Note: A downplaying/framing statement rather than a hard dated forecast; included with that caveat.

SourcesSalon

Glenn Beck

Glenn Beck (Fox News) / radio

high confidence2009–2010

On November 3rd, the Fed hits the Weimar moment. … Come next year, you are going to see prices skyrocket.

The prediction

Weimar/Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and a dollar collapse after the Fed's quantitative easing - with gold as the safe haven (Beck was a paid Goldline spokesman).

What actually happened

Hyperinflation never came; CPI ran roughly 1–3% for years. Gold peaked around September 2011 and then fell for years, hurting late buyers who followed his advice.

SourcesMedia Matters

Peter Schiff

Euro Pacific Capital; frequent Fox Business guest

medium confidence2009–present

[The coming crisis will] make 2008 look like a Sunday school picnic.

The prediction

An imminent dollar collapse and runaway inflation destroying the U.S. economy.

What actually happened

The predicted collapse repeatedly failed to arrive over more than a decade; the dollar stayed the world reserve currency and U.S. equities set repeated record highs.

Note: Schiff makes open-ended 'coming soon' calls that resist a single falsification date; verbatim wording confirmed.

SourcesFox Business

Sarah Palin

Fox News contributor

high confidenceNov 7, 2010

Everyone who ever goes out shopping for groceries knows that prices have risen significantly over the past year or so.

The prediction

The Fed's QE2 money-printing would drive significant/runaway inflation.

What actually happened

PolitiFact rated it Mostly False - grocery prices had risen only ~1.4% year-over-year, among the slowest on record. QE2 produced no such inflation.

Note: Politician who was a paid Fox contributor at the time.

SourcesPolitiFact

Larry Kudlow

CNBC host / National Review

high confidenceDec 7, 2007

There's no recession coming. The pessimistas were wrong. It's not going to happen.

The prediction

No recession; a continuing 'Bush boom.'

What actually happened

The Great Recession - the worst downturn since the 1930s - officially began that very month and ran to June 2009. Kudlow later said 'I plead guilty.'

SourcesKudlow column archive·Washington Examiner

Charles Payne

Fox Business host

high confidenceJun 17, 2019

When President Obama was elected, the market crashed. … Trump was up 9%, President Obama was down 14.8%.

The prediction

That electing Obama itself crashed the stock market.

What actually happened

PolitiFact rated it False. The Dow moved less than ~2% on Obama's actual election day; the 14.8% reflected the ongoing 2008 financial crisis over months, not a reaction to his win.

SourcesPolitiFact

Larry Kudlow

Fox Business

medium confidence2021–2022

Biden's big government socialism has turned a booming economy into a bust.

The prediction

An economic 'bust' / collapse under Biden's agenda. (Trump surrogates likewise predicted a Biden win would 'crash' the market.)

What actually happened

Unemployment fell to a ~50-year low (3.4% in early 2023), GDP grew, and markets repeatedly hit record highs. The 2021–22 inflation spike gives the criticism partial cover, so not a clean miss.

Note: Falsified on growth/jobs/markets; inflation gives it partial cover - flagged Medium.

SourcesFox Business·Snopes (market-crash prediction)

Larry Kudlow

National Review (Kudlow's Money Politic$ blog)

high confidenceFeb 5, 2008

But no matter what the signal was today, I'm going to bet that the economy will be rebounding sometime this summer, if not sooner. We are in a slow patch. That's all. It's nothing to get up in arms about.

The prediction

The economy would be rebounding by summer 2008, if not sooner - just a 'slow patch,' not a recession.

What actually happened

The recession that had begun two months earlier (December 2007) deepened through 2008 into the longest downturn since World War II: real GDP fell 4.3% peak-to-trough, the S&P 500 lost 57% of its value, and the recession did not end until June 2009 - a full year past Kudlow's summer 2008 window.

SourcesNational Review (archived)·Federal Reserve History

Larry Kudlow

CNBC's "The Exchange" (as National Economic Council Director)

high confidenceFeb 25, 2020

We have contained this. We have contained this. I won't say airtight, but pretty close to airtight. ... The business side and the economic side, I don't think it's going to be an economic tragedy at all.

The prediction

That the coronavirus outbreak would not become an economic tragedy for the United States.

What actually happened

Within four weeks Kudlow publicly admitted he was wrong that the disease was 'contained.' The National Bureau of Economic Research later dated the U.S. recession's start to February 2020, and April 2020 payrolls fell by 20.5 million with unemployment at 14.7 percent - the worst reading on record.

SourcesCNBC transcript·CNBC (admission)·NBER·BLS, April 2020 employment situation

Sean Hannity & Fox opinion

Fox News (multi-year)

high confidence2009–2017

[Obamacare's] 'death panels' … and an insurance-market 'death spiral' that would collapse healthcare.

The prediction

Government 'death panels' rationing care, an irreversible market 'death spiral,' and economic destruction from the ACA.

What actually happened

'Death panels' was PolitiFact's 2009 Lie of the Year - no such panels exist. The predicted death spiral never came; ACA enrollment climbed to record highs (~20–24 million by the mid-2020s).

Note: 'Death panels' coined by Palin (Aug 2009) and amplified nightly across Fox; wording paraphrased.

SourcesMedia Matters·FactCheck.org

These policies are going to set the city back decades. … [An] 'Escape From New York' business exodus.

The prediction

A mass 'stampede' of businesses and the wealthy out of NYC to Florida/Texas if Zohran Mamdani won.

What actually happened

By spring 2026 (~6 months in), the exodus 'failed to materialize.' Two top real-estate CEOs said no one was leaving because of Mamdani; the wealthy stayed, unlike the COVID-era outflow.

SourcesFox News·CNBC

Hannity · Ingraham · O'Reilly · McEnany

Fox News

high confidenceLate 2025 – early 2026

[Mamdani would bring] the biggest crime wave New York will ever have seen … the complete destruction of New York City. (Hannity)

The prediction

Surging violent crime and civic collapse under Mayor Mamdani.

What actually happened

In his first five months, NYC crime hit record lows: murders down ~21% (a record low for the period), major crime down ~10.6%, subway crime down >6%, public housing at its safest year on record.

SourcesMedia Matters (with NYPD data)

Jesse Watters

Jesse Watters Primetime (Fox News)

medium confidenceMid-2026

This is how communism starts.

The prediction

NYC descending into 'communism' - after Mamdani's office gave routine heat-wave advice to set ACs to ~78°F.

What actually happened

Standard public-health guidance during heat waves (federal agencies had said the same); no descent into communism. Rhetorical fearmongering rather than a datable forecast.

Note: Primary page (HuffPost/Yahoo) was rate-limited; the quote is corroborated across multiple outlets.

SourcesAOL/HuffPost

Pat Robertson

The 700 Club (CBN)

medium confidenceJan 3, 2011 - dated to 2012 in the same segment

Your creditors will demand payment, and there will not be enough to satisfy their claims. Your currency will shrink in value; your bonds will lose value. People on fixed incomes will suffer. Unemployment will escalate, and there will be turmoil.

The prediction

That in 2012, America's creditors would demand payment the U.S. could not satisfy, the currency and bonds would lose value, and unemployment would escalate into turmoil.

What actually happened

The opposite occurred on every metric. Investors paid record prices to lend to the U.S., with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a record low of 1.395% in July 2012; unemployment fell from 9.1% (Jan 2011) to 7.9% (Dec 2012); no U.S. default or currency collapse occurred in 2012.

Note: The quote rests on Mediaite's contemporaneous transcription of the aired segment, published alongside embedded video of the broadcast; that transcription was not independently checked against surviving video or a YouTube mirror this pass, so confidence is flagged Medium pending that check.

SourcesMediaite·AP via CBS News·CNN Money (archived)·FRED, unemployment rate

I'm going to release the Kraken.

The prediction

Overwhelming evidence that Dominion/Smartmatic machines switched millions of votes, overturning the 2020 result and flipping GA, MI, WI, AZ to Trump.

What actually happened

Every 'Kraken' suit was dismissed; no fraud was proven; her team was sanctioned (SCOTUS left sanctions in place). In 2023 she pleaded guilty in Georgia to misdemeanor conspiracy counts.

SourcesReason·CBS News (sanctions)

Mike Lindell

MyPillow CEO / Frank Speech (on Bannon's War Room)

high confidence2021

It will be 9-0, down comes election. In August, here comes Donald Trump, our real president. … By the morning of Aug. 13, it will be the talk of the world.

The prediction

The Supreme Court would rule 9-0 to 'take down' the 2020 election and reinstate Trump by August 13, 2021.

What actually happened

Nothing happened on August 13; the Court took no such action and has no such power. Lindell repeatedly moved the date, including to 'this fall'; his separately dated Supreme Court filing promise (a Thanksgiving 2021 deadline) is scored in the separate Sept 2021 Supreme Court filing entry to avoid double-counting the same miss. Dominion sued him for defamation.

SourcesNewsweek·Salon (Reinstatement Day)

Mike Lindell

Bannon's War Room (Rumble)

high confidenceSept 24, 2021 - restated from a Sept 21, 2021 War Room appearance

I've told everyone I have committed to ... that we're getting this all, everything, all the evidence I have to the Supreme Court. That will be done before Thanksgiving. That's in stone.

The prediction

That he would file his election-fraud evidence with the U.S. Supreme Court before Thanksgiving 2021, and, per his Sept 21, 2021 War Room appearance as reported by Salon, that the Court would vote 9-0 to take up the case.

What actually happened

Lindell conceded on the evening of Tuesday, November 23, 2021 that he would not meet his own deadline; he instead posted a complaint on his website naming no state attorney general as plaintiff and blamed an RNC pressure campaign. No case was ever filed with the Supreme Court.

Note: The unhedged '9-0' vote claim comes from Salon's contemporaneous transcription of a separate Sept 21, 2021 War Room appearance, whose broadcast video could not be located to verify verbatim - it is reported here as Salon's account, not quoted as Lindell's own words. The quote above is from a verified primary recording of his Sept 24, 2021 restatement of the same Thanksgiving deadline.

SourcesSalon·Washington Times·The Daily Beast·Raw Story

Mike Lindell

Dakota News Now interview

high confidenceJul 22, 2021 - ahead of the Aug 10-12, 2021 Cyber Symposium

I want these cyber forensic experts all here, and because you and I can't read the stuff that comes in these packet captures, they need to understand it and they do understand it, so they're going to validate it just like I had cyber experts validate all this, okay?

The prediction

That the cyber forensics experts invited to his August 10-12, 2021 Cyber Symposium would validate his claimed 'packet captures' proving the 2020 election was hacked.

What actually happened

No packet captures were ever provided to the attending experts across all three days; the released material was video of unauthenticated code scrolling in a loop. Lindell's own hired red-team expert, Josh Merritt, told the Washington Times the packet captures were unrecoverable in the data and could not prove a cyber intrusion.

SourcesDakota News Now·Lead Stories·Washington Times

Mike Lindell

The Daily Beast

medium confidenceJan 27, 2023

This isn't for the public to vote, why don't you wait till this thing is over next week, and then I will give you the story when I win. [Pressed on possibly declaring victory pre-emptively:] Well, why wouldn't I win? I am more qualified.

The prediction

That he would win the January 27, 2023 election for chair of the Republican National Committee.

What actually happened

Ronna McDaniel won reelection with 111 of 167 votes cast; Harmeet Dhillon received 51; Lindell received 4.

Note: The cleanest scoreable commitment is by presupposition ('when I win,' not 'if'), tied to a dated vote - not a flat 'I will win' sentence. On the morning of the vote he also told reporters 'the people want me.'

SourcesThe Daily Beast·CNN

Pat Robertson

Interview with Benny Hinn

high confidencelate October/early November 2012, the week before the election

He's going to win. Romney will win the election. [Hinn:] What makes you believe that? [Robertson:] 'Cause the Lord told me.

The prediction

That Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election.

What actually happened

Barack Obama won reelection, 332 electoral votes to 206. Robertson later acknowledged the miss on air: 'So many of us miss God, I won't get into great detail about elections but I sure did miss it, I thought I heard from God, I thought I had heard clearly from God, what happened?'

Note: Rendered as dialogue: Hinn's interjection is load-bearing, converting 'the Lord told me' from color into the stated basis of an unhedged commitment.

SourcesArchived broadcast clip·Right Wing Watch·FEC, 2012 official results·Right Wing Watch (admission)

Maria Bartiromo

Fox Business / Fox News

high confidenceNov 4, 2020

I would expect the Trump administration is going to take down the hammer. … Do a deep dive into these ballots.

The prediction

Trump's legal challenges would overturn the result and prove outcome-reversing fraud.

What actually happened

The result stood; no fraud altered it. Bartiromo was a named figure in Dominion's defamation case, which Fox settled for $787.5 million.

SourcesFox News Radio·Media Matters

Lou Dobbs

Lou Dobbs Tonight (Fox Business)

high confidenceNov–Dec 2020

[Amplified Powell's 'Kraken' claims; asserted 'many' were trying to 'steal' the election from Trump, who had 'rightfully' won.]

The prediction

Fraud would be exposed and the result would not stand.

What actually happened

No fraud overturned the election. Dobbs was individually named in the Dominion and Smartmatic suits; his show was canceled in Feb 2021.

Note: Quotes are close paraphrase from on-air coverage.

SourcesMediaite·Daily Beast

Dan Bongino

Radio/podcast host (pre-2025 FBI role)

high confidenceMay 25, 2020

How he stays out of prison or prosecution is beyond me. If he's not prosecuted, I would be stunned.

The prediction

Multiple prosecutions and prison for 'Obamagate' / Spygate figures.

What actually happened

The one FBI lawyer charged (Kevin Clinesmith) got probation, not prison; the Flynn 'leaker' was never charged. Durham's probe produced no prosecutions of the officials Bongino targeted.

SourcesWestern Journal·AP via NY1 (Durham outcome)

Sean Hannity & Fox opinion

Fox News

medium confidence2019–2021

[The Trump–Russia origins are] probably the biggest scandal in U.S. presidential history.

The prediction

The Durham investigation would expose massive criminality and jail Obama-era officials (Obama/Clinton/Comey circle).

What actually happened

Durham's four-year probe ended in 2023 with one guilty plea (probation) and two acquittals - no charges against any senior official. Trump had called it 'the crime of the century.'

Note: 'Biggest scandal' framing verbatim; the specific prosecution-prediction wording is paraphrased.

SourcesCNN (Durham report)·AP via NY1

Sean Hannity

Hannity (Fox News)

high confidenceNov 2022

All of the foundational issues are there for the Republicans to have a wave election. … RED TSUNAMI COMING?

The prediction

A Republican 'red tsunami' wave in the 2022 midterms.

What actually happened

No red wave. Democrats expanded their Senate majority (50→51); Republicans took the House only narrowly. Hannity later claimed he couldn't recall who started the 'red tsunami' talk.

SourcesHuffPost·Daily Beast

Kayleigh McEnany & Ted Cruz

Fox News / 'Verdict' podcast

high confidenceOct–Nov 2022

Not just a red wave, but a red tsunami. (Cruz) … [McEnany forecast a] 'big red wave.'

The prediction

A sweeping GOP wave/tsunami in the 2022 midterms.

What actually happened

It fizzled into a narrow House gain and a Senate loss - described across outlets as a 'red trickle.'

SourcesFox News (Cruz)·Fox News (result)

Rush Limbaugh

The Rush Limbaugh Show (syndicated radio)

medium confidence2016 & 2020

Trump will beat Clinton by landslide proportions. (2016) … Trump is not losing the election. (Oct 2020)

The prediction

A Trump landslide over Clinton (2016) and a Trump win in 2020.

What actually happened

Trump lost the 2016 popular vote by ~2.9M (no landslide) and lost the 2020 election outright (306–232, ~7M popular-vote deficit).

SourcesThe Hill (2016)·Western Journal (2020)

Fox News (David Ward, Ingraham, Kilmeade)

Fox News

high confidenceOct 25–29, 2018

They are coming in with diseases such as smallpox and leprosy and TB. (Dr. David Ward)

The prediction

The 2018 migrant caravan would import outbreaks of smallpox, leprosy and other diseases.

What actually happened

Smallpox was globally eradicated in 1980 - no one could carry it. NPR's on-the-ground reporting found 'flu, blisters, but definitely not smallpox'; no caravan-driven outbreak occurred.

SourcesMedia Matters·NPR

Laura Ingraham

The Ingraham Angle (Fox News)

high confidenceNov 19, 2018

[Wealthy liberals] don't have to worry about the crime and the disease, and all the other problems brought into a geographical area because of a crush of humanity.

The prediction

The 2018 caravan would import crime and disease.

What actually happened

No caravan-driven crime wave; border-area and national crime did not spike. Immigrant crime rates remained below native-born.

SourcesMedia Matters

[The caravan was repeatedly labeled an] 'invasion' - with 33+ hours of Fox airtime and ~5,000 troops deployed.

The prediction

An imminent mass breach flooding into the U.S.

What actually happened

No invasion - the caravan dwindled and arrived piecemeal in Tijuana over weeks. Fox mentions fell 83% the week after the midterms, and Trump's post-election proclamation dropped the word 'caravan' - revealing it as election messaging.

SourcesThe Wrap·Quartz

Ann Coulter

Author/commentator (Fox News appearances)

high confidenceApr 30, 2018

They're going to get shipped in and we'll get another round of MS-13.

The prediction

The caravan would stream in unimpeded and deliver another MS-13 crime wave.

What actually happened

Participants were overwhelmingly families fleeing violence, not gang members; asylum processing was slow/restricted; no MS-13 wave materialized.

SourcesBreitbart·Media Matters

Watters · Hannity · Ingraham

Fox News (~1,000 'migrant crime' segments in 2024)

medium confidence2024

There is a migrant crime spree killing Americans … (Watters). This bloodbath is reaching every single corner of our country. (Hannity)

The prediction

A nationwide migrant-driven crime spree, concentrated in migrant-receiving cities.

What actually happened

Violent crime and murder fell nationally in 2023–2024; NBC News found crime dropping in the cities that received the most bused migrants; NYC saw no violent-crime rise despite 150,000+ migrants.

Note: Quotes via Media Matters transcripts; worth spot-checking against original clips.

SourcesMedia Matters·Brennan Center

Ted Cruz

U.S. Senator / 2016 candidate (amplified on Fox)

high confidenceApr 2016

If the law says that any man, if he chooses, can enter a women's restroom … you're opening the door for predators.

The prediction

Trans-inclusive restroom access would 'open the door for predators' preying on women and girls.

What actually happened

No wave of assaults occurred. The 2018 Williams Institute (UCLA) study found trans-inclusive laws 'do not affect the number or frequency of criminal incidents in restrooms.' PolitiFact rated the framing Mostly False.

Note: Politician; claim carried widely across conservative media during the HB2 fight.

SourcesPolitiFact·Williams Institute (UCLA)

Franklin Graham

BGEA / Samaritan's Purse (frequent Fox guest)

high confidenceApr 2016

A man shouldn't be able to enter the women's restroom … this policy encourages sexual predators and puts women and children in danger.

The prediction

Target's trans-inclusive policy would 'encourage sexual predators.'

What actually happened

No measurable increase in assaults; law-enforcement officials in multiple states reported no link between these laws and bathroom crimes.

SourcesChristian Post·Media Matters (bathroom-myth guide)

Oliver North

Fox News contributor

high confidenceJul 27, 2017

Why would we spend $1.5 billion on that when for the same amount of money, we could build another USS Wasp?

The prediction

Transgender military care would cost ~$1.5 billion - a crippling, warship-sized expense.

What actually happened

Off by 2–3 orders of magnitude. RAND estimated $2.4–8.4 million/year; DoD reported ~$8 million total from 2016–2019 (<0.02% of its health budget). No bankruptcy.

SourcesMedia Matters·PBS NewsHour

Mollie Hemingway

The Federalist / Fox News (Special Report)

high confidenceJul 26, 2017

Transgender ideology is just one of many social justices that have caused a lot [of] problems for troop cohesion and ability to fight wars.

The prediction

Trans troops damage unit cohesion and warfighting ability.

What actually happened

RAND found 'little or no impact on unit cohesion, operational effectiveness, or readiness.' After Biden reversed the ban in 2021 (~15,000 trans personnel), no readiness collapse followed.

SourcesMedia Matters·RAND

Matt Walsh

Blaze Media (now Daily Wire)

high confidenceJun 6, 2017

There will be no more women's leagues. … The extinction of women's sports is on the horizon.

The prediction

Trans inclusion would eliminate women's leagues entirely.

What actually happened

Women's sports hit historic highs - the 2024 NCAA women's basketball final drew a record ~18.7M viewers; the WNBA shattered viewership records. No leagues eliminated.

SourcesMatt Walsh (Blaze)·Sports Illustrated

Charlie Kirk

Turning Point USA / syndicated host

high confidenceMar 29, 2022

So, [Lia] Thomas has destroyed female sports as we know it.

The prediction

Women's sports already 'destroyed' by a single trans swimmer.

What actually happened

Not destroyed - record women's basketball and WNBA viewership followed in 2023–2025.

Note: A declaration ('has destroyed') rather than a dated forecast.

SourcesMedia Matters

Douglas Murray

Fox News contributor (Fox & Friends Weekend)

high confidenceJun 5, 2022

The moment you allow biological men into women's sports, it's the end of women's sports.

The prediction

Trans inclusion would end women's sports.

What actually happened

Women's sports entered their strongest commercial era, with record NCAA, WNBA and NWSL numbers in 2023–2025.

SourcesFox News

Ben Shapiro

The Daily Wire

medium confidence2023

[Trans youth are] increasing at tens of thousands of percent … extraordinarily socially contagious rates of trans and queer identification.

The prediction

Runaway, non-organic, socially contagious growth in trans identification.

What actually happened

The share is small single digits (Williams Institute: ~1.4% of teens in 2022 → ~3.3% in 2025), not 'tens of thousands of percent.' A 2022 Pediatrics study (CDC data) found no evidence of social contagion.

Note: Substance solid; exact wording via Media Matters transcript.

SourcesNBC News (contagion study)·Media Matters

Todd Starnes

Fox News

high confidenceApr 28, 2015

We could soon see pastors being brought up on hate crime charges for preaching from the Bible.

The prediction

Same-sex marriage would lead to criminal prosecution of pastors for sermons or for refusing to officiate.

What actually happened

No U.S. pastor has been charged with a hate crime for preaching or declining to officiate; preaching is core protected First Amendment speech.

SourcesSalon

Franklin Graham

BGEA (CBN interview)

high confidenceOct 15, 2019

Unless we bow down and accept their agenda … the LGBTQ agenda, then they'll take our tax exempt status.

The prediction

Government would strip churches' tax-exempt status over LGBTQ views.

What actually happened

No church has lost tax-exempt status for opposing same-sex marriage; the IRS took no such action and no such law passed.

SourcesCBN·Snopes

Bill O'Reilly

The O'Reilly Factor (Fox News)

high confidenceMay 11, 2009

You would let everybody get married who want to get married. You want to marry a turtle, you can.

The prediction

Same-sex marriage would logically extend to marrying animals.

What actually happened

Marriage equality became law (Obergefell, 2015); no human–animal marriage exists anywhere in the U.S.

SourcesMedia Matters

Pat Robertson

The 700 Club (CBN)

high confidenceJul 23, 2015

Love affairs between men and animals are going to be absolutely permitted. Polygamy, without question, is going to be permitted.

The prediction

Obergefell would force the legalization of bestiality and polygamy.

What actually happened

Neither was legalized; both remain illegal nationwide.

SourcesMetro Weekly

Fischer · Dobson · Perkins

AFA / Focus on the Family / FRC

medium confidence2015

As of today, free exercise is toast. (Bryan Fischer) … Some may go to prison as the years unfold. (James Dobson)

The prediction

Obergefell would end religious free exercise, imprison believers, and force churches to perform same-sex weddings.

What actually happened

Free-exercise protections were reinforced (Masterpiece Cakeshop 2018; 303 Creative 2023); the 2022 Respect for Marriage Act protected clergy from being compelled. No church compelled; no one imprisoned.

Note: Wording sourced to the Americans United 'Obergefell at Five' compilation, not primary audio.

SourcesAmericans United

Steven Emerson

Fox News 'terrorism expert' (Judge Jeanine)

high confidenceJan 10, 2015

There are actual cities like Birmingham that are totally Muslim, where non-Muslims just simply don't go in.

The prediction

Whole Western cities were Muslim-only 'no-go zones' off-limits to non-Muslims.

What actually happened

Birmingham was ~22% Muslim / 46% Christian. PolitiFact rated it 'Pants on Fire'; UK PM Cameron called Emerson 'a complete idiot'; Emerson apologized.

SourcesPolitiFact·BBC

Mark Steyn

National Review / frequent Fox guest-host

medium confidence2006

Europe will be semi-Islamic in its politico-cultural character within a generation.

The prediction

Western Europe would be effectively Muslim-dominated within roughly a generation.

What actually happened

A generation later, no Western European nation is Muslim-majority; Muslim fertility converged toward national averages and the 'Eurabia' thesis was rejected by demographers.

SourcesForeign Policy (Eurabian Follies)

Glenn Beck

Glenn Beck radio / TheBlaze

high confidenceMay 5, 2015

This next presidency, mark my words, this next presidency, we will see martial law.

The prediction

The administration beginning in January 2017 would bring martial law.

What actually happened

No martial law was declared during the Trump presidency (2017–2021).

SourcesGlennBeck.com (own site)

Alex Jones

Infowars

high confidenceSpring–Summer 2015

[Jade Helm 15 was] the beginning stages of martial law - a federal takeover of Texas and the Southwest.

The prediction

A U.S. military exercise would trigger a federal takeover of Texas, martial law, gun confiscation and mass arrests.

What actually happened

Jade Helm 15 was a routine special-ops training exercise (Jul–Sep 2015) that ended with no takeover, no martial law, no confiscation. The Pentagon: 'We are not taking over anything.'

Note: Jones's exact wording paraphrased; the non-event is well documented.

SourcesPolitiFact·Snopes

Wayne LaPierre

NRA (CPAC / fundraising, amplified across conservative media)

high confidence2011–2012

[A re-elected Obama would] erase the Second Amendment from the Bill of Rights and excise it from the U.S. Constitution.

The prediction

A hidden second-term Obama plan to abolish gun rights and confiscate firearms.

What actually happened

Obama served a full second term untouched; the Second Amendment stood; his 2013 background-check bill failed in the Senate; gun sales rose.

SourcesMedia Matters

Pat Robertson

The 700 Club (CBN)

high confidenceJan 2, 2007

[God told him] major cities and possibly millions of people will be affected … mass killing … sometime after September.

The prediction

A catastrophic terror attack on the U.S. in late 2007, possibly killing millions.

What actually happened

No such attack occurred.

SourcesCBS News

Pat Robertson

The 700 Club (CBN)

high confidenceMay 2006

If I heard the Lord right about 2006, the coasts of America will be lashed by storms … something as bad as a tsunami in the Pacific Northwest.

The prediction

Devastating storms and a possible Pacific Northwest tsunami in 2006.

What actually happened

No U.S. tsunami occurred; the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was notably mild.

SourcesFox News

Pat Robertson

The 700 Club (CBN)

high confidenceOct 2020

[Trump]'s going to win. That's, I think, a given. … [followed by war and an asteroid to] 'end it all.'

The prediction

Trump reelection followed by an end-times sequence culminating in an asteroid strike.

What actually happened

Trump lost to Biden; no asteroid. Robertson later conceded Biden won and told Trump to 'move on.'

Note: Asteroid detail paraphrased; election claim widely reported.

SourcesThe Hill

Pat Robertson

The 700 Club (CBN)

high confidenceMar 28, 1980

... date setting is dangerous. I'd say within the next couple of years we're going to see a war there. The next major war to be fought in the world is going to be right here, here, here. Why? Because the Bible says so, and Russia, the Bible says, is going to invade.

The prediction

That the next major war in the world would be a Russian invasion of Israel within the next couple of years.

What actually happened

The next major war was the Iran-Iraq War, which began September 22, 1980 - not in Israel and with no Soviet invasion. No Soviet invasion of Israel ever occurred; the USSR itself dissolved in December 1991.

Note: Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon is not what is scored here: that was neither the predicted belligerent (Russia/USSR) nor the predicted 'next major war' - the Iran-Iraq War came first, six months after this broadcast.

SourcesArchived broadcast video·Britannica, Iran-Iraq War·Britannica, collapse of the Soviet Union

If it happens, there will be a civil war in the United States of America. The Christians will finally come out of the shadows.

The prediction

A Christian-led civil war triggered by Trump's impeachment.

What actually happened

Trump was impeached twice; no civil war followed.

SourcesThe Hill

Rush Limbaugh

The Rush Limbaugh Show (syndicated radio)

medium confidenceJan 6, 2014

They just created it for this week … They're in the middle of a hoax, they're perpetrating a hoax.

The prediction

The 'polar vortex' was a term invented by liberals/media to prop up global-warming claims.

What actually happened

The polar vortex is a long-established meteorological phenomenon; 2014, 2015 and 2016 each set successive global heat records. PolitiFact rated his framing false.

SourcesPolitiFact·Grist

Tucker Carlson

Judging Freedom podcast (with Judge Andrew Napolitano)

high confidenceDec 17, 2025

Here's what I know so far, which is that members of Congress were briefed yesterday that a war is coming, and it'll be announced in the address to the nation tonight at nine o'clock by the president. Who knows, by the way, if that will actually happen - I don't know, and I never want to overstate what I know, which is pretty limited in general - but a member of Congress told me that this morning. So that's what I know.

The prediction

A war would be announced in Trump's address to the nation that night.

What actually happened

Trump delivered the primetime address from the Diplomatic Reception Room on December 17, 2025; no war, invasion, or military operation was announced. It focused on defending his economic record and blaming his predecessor, and closed with a 'warrior dividend' of $1,776 checks for service members. Venezuela was not mentioned - the full transcript contains zero occurrences of 'Venezuela' or 'Maduro'.

Note: Quoted in full including the hedge ('who knows … if that will actually happen'). The war claim is relayed as a congressional briefing ('members of Congress were briefed … that a war is coming'), not asserted in Carlson's own voice, so the entry doesn't establish that he personally believed it - only that he broadcast a specific, dated, checkable forecast to his audience hours before the deadline, and it failed.

SourcesDaily Beast (claim)·HuffPost (claim)·Miller Center (primary transcript)·NPR (outcome)·TIME (outcome)

Bill Maher

Real Time with Bill Maher, HBO

high confidenceOct 18, 2019 - repeated through Oct 2020

I've been saying for a very long time now that I don't think he's leaving. I mean, he wasn't going to leave the first time, he said it's all about 'it's rigged.' He could lose by a landslide in 2020 and I still think he would say 'it's rigged, fake news, deep state.' I just don't think you're going to get him out of there.

The prediction

That Trump would not physically leave the White House, even after losing the 2020 election.

What actually happened

Trump lost the November 3, 2020 election, but on January 20, 2021 he boarded Marine One at 8:20 a.m., flew to Joint Base Andrews, and left for Florida before Joe Biden was sworn in at noon. Power transferred on schedule.

Note: Maher was right that Trump would refuse to concede and would contest the result - that is not what is scored here. The claim under test is narrower: physical non-departure from office. He said he didn't think Trump would leave, and Trump left.

SourcesNewsweek·Last Night On·The Week·Al Jazeera

Bill Maher

Real Time with Bill Maher, HBO (New Rules)

high confidenceNov 4, 2022 - four days before the midterms

Democracy is on the ballot and unfortunately it's going to lose. And once it's gone, it's gone. ... Republicans will take control of Congress and next year they'll begin impeaching Biden and never stop. They'll impeach him for getting out of Afghanistan and getting into Ukraine, for inflation, for recession, for falling off his bike. It won't matter and it won't make sense. But Biden will be a crippled duck when he goes up against the 2024 Trump-Kari Lake ticket.

The prediction

That the 2024 Republican presidential ticket would be Trump-Kari Lake, that House Republicans would impeach Biden and never stop, and that Biden would face that ticket.

What actually happened

The 2024 Republican ticket was Trump-Vance, not Trump-Kari Lake. Lake lost her own race for Arizona governor four days after the segment aired, taking 49.65% to Katie Hobbs's 50.32%. House Republicans opened a Biden impeachment inquiry and closed it on August 19, 2024 with a 291-page report that recommended no articles of impeachment - they did not never stop, they stopped. And Biden never faced that ticket at all: he withdrew from the race on July 21, 2024.

Note: Republicans did take the House in 2022, so the quote's opening clause ("Republicans will take control of Congress") reads as correct in isolation - that clause is not what is scored here. The claim under test is the named 2024 ticket and the impeachment claim that follows it. Corroborated the same week on Bill Burr's Monday Morning Podcast (Nov 3, 2022): "They're definitely going to win." That electoral half-call is not scored on its own here - it names no seat count or margin - but it is the same call, in the same week, as the one scored above.

SourcesTheWrap·Fox News·CBS Austin / The National Desk·Wikipedia, 2024 U.S. presidential election·Wikipedia, 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election·CNN·Axios

Bill Maher

Real Time with Bill Maher, HBO

high confidenceSep 13, 2024 - restated Sep 27, 2024

I'm going to make this a very momentous night with a prediction ... I think it's over ... He's going to lose. [Two weeks later, pressed by Ian Bremmer:] We're not. I've already put my marker down on that. [Answering a follow-up from Fran Lebowitz:] No, not at all. Yeah, no, no, no, he's definitely going to lose. You just feel it.

The prediction

That Trump would lose the November 2024 presidential election.

What actually happened

Trump won all seven swing states, 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris's 226, and the popular vote 49.8% to 48.3% - the first Republican popular-vote win in twenty years. On the following Friday's Real Time, Maher conceded the underlying misjudgment: "They could not conceive of a second Trump term, but they should've."

SourcesTVInsider·Newsweek·Salon·NBC News·The Hill

Joe Rogan

The Joe Rogan Experience #2132, guest Andrew Schulz

medium confidenceApril 6, 2024

"I feel like right around May they're going to pull him." [Schulz: "And Newsom comes in."] "I think he just has health problems and then the country understands, and Newsom is gonna have his support fully."

The prediction

That Democrats would pull Biden from the 2024 ticket around May, with Gavin Newsom replacing him.

What actually happened

May 2024 passed with Biden as the presumptive nominee. He remained the candidate through May and June, debated Trump on June 27, 2024, and withdrew July 21, 2024 - about eleven weeks after the named month. He endorsed Kamala Harris, not Newsom; Newsom endorsed Harris the same day and never entered the race.

Note: Rogan was right that Biden would eventually be pulled from the ticket - that is not what is scored here. The claim under test is the named month and the named replacement, both of which missed (see reality). Twenty-two seconds before this prediction, on the same recording, he had said "I'm starting to think they might actually keep running him," a hedge stated moments before the specific call. Speaker attribution (Rogan, not guest Andrew Schulz) rests on contemporaneous press reporting, not a diarized transcript - none exists for this episode - so the entry ships at medium rather than high confidence.

Sourcesjre.ai (primary transcript, JRE #2132)·Podscripts (second independent ASR transcript; renders the contraction 'gonna pull him')·Fox News (claim, quoting the broadcast)·OutKick (independent secondary corroboration)·OGJRE episode index (episode identification)·Wikipedia, Withdrawal of Joe Biden from the 2024 United States presidential election (outcome)·NPR live blog (outcome)·Axios (Newsom's same-day endorsement of Harris)

Stephen Miller

Reported internal goal (Washington Post)

high confidence2025

[Drove an internal administration goal of one million deportations per year - the benchmark for 'the largest deportation operation in history.']

The prediction

~1,000,000 removals in the first year.

What actually happened

First-year totals fell well short. DHS's own highest figure was ~605,000 (~60% of goal); independent trackers were far lower (UCLA ~350,000; TRAC ~234,000 for Jan–Sept 2025). The total was padded with an unverified '1.9 million self-deported' claim.

Note: The shortfall is HIGH-confidence; that the exact '1 million' figure is Miller's precise words (vs. a goal he drove) is reported, not filmed.

SourcesPolitiFact·Washington Post

Stephen Miller

Reported directive (Axios/WaPo)

high confidenceMay 2025

[Directed ICE leadership to reach 3,000 immigration arrests per day, up from ~1,000.]

The prediction

3,000 arrests a day - the pace needed for ~1 million a year.

What actually happened

Actual arrests averaged ~821/day over the first ten months of 2025, and ~1,100/day even in the highest weeks - roughly 37% of the 3,000 target.

SourcesThe Independent via AOL·Report on 3,000/day directive

Stephen Miller

CBS Face the Nation

high confidenceFeb 12, 2017

The powers of the president to protect our country are very substantial and will not be questioned.

The prediction

That courts would not successfully question Trump's authority over the travel ban.

What actually happened

The power was questioned immediately and repeatedly: the 9th Circuit upheld a block, the first two travel-ban versions were struck down, and only a third, watered-down version survived at the Supreme Court in 2018.

SourcesFactCheck.org·Washington Post (video)

Stephen Miller

Repeated X posts / TV

medium confidence2025–2026

[Asserted the 14th Amendment does not guarantee birthright citizenship to children of undocumented parents, and that Trump's January 2025 order ending it was constitutional and would stand.]

The prediction

The executive order would take effect / the Supreme Court would uphold the administration's reading.

What actually happened

The Supreme Court struck the order down 6-3 (June 30/July 1, 2026), reaffirming birthright citizenship. Miller called the ruling 'destructive' and 'outrageous' - the opposite of his position.

Note: The ruling and Miller's stance are well documented; he framed it as legal certainty rather than one crisp dated forecast, so it is flagged Medium.

SourcesAl Jazeera·Washington Examiner

Robert Kiyosaki

X (@theRealKiyosaki)

high confidenceSep 26, 2021

Giant stock market crash coming October. Why? Treasury and Fed short of T-bills. Gold,silver, Bitcoin may crash too. Cash best for picking up bargains after crash. ...

The prediction

A giant stock market crash in October 2021.

What actually happened

No crash occurred. The S&P 500 gained 6.9% in October 2021 - its best month of the year - and set a record closing high of 4,605.38 on Oct 29, 2021.

Note: The post's hedged 'Gold,silver, Bitcoin may crash too' clause is not scored; the entry rests on the unhedged stock-market sentence.

SourcesKiyosaki (X)·Archived post·Benzinga·Nasdaq

Robert Kiyosaki

X (@theRealKiyosaki)

high confidenceMay 16, 2020

... Bought more gold silver Bitcoin. GOLD @$1700. Predict $3000 in 1 year. Silver @ $17. Predict $40 in 5 years. Bitcoin @$9800. Predict $75000 in 3 years. ...

The prediction

Gold to $3,000 within 1 year (~May 2021), silver to $40 within 5 years (~May 2025), and Bitcoin to $75,000 within 3 years (~May 2023).

What actually happened

All three missed their windows. Gold traded in the $1,800s in May 2021 and did not first cross $3,000 until March 14, 2025, nearly four years late. Bitcoin traded near $27,000 in May 2023 and did not first cross $75,000 until November 6, 2024, eighteen months late. Silver traded around $32-33 in May 2025 and did not first cross $40 until August 31, 2025, the first time since 2011.

Note: The claims name windows ('in 1 year,' 'in 3 years,' 'in 5 years'), not open-ended targets; each asset eventually reaching the number years after its window closed is the rolling-goalpost pattern this entry documents.

SourcesKiyosaki (X)·Archived post·Cointelegraph·World Gold Council·Investing News Network

Robert Kiyosaki

X (@theRealKiyosaki)

high confidenceFeb 18, 2024

BITCOIN to $100k by June 2024.

The prediction

Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by June 2024.

What actually happened

Bitcoin ended June 2024 near $62,700 and never touched $100,000 during the window. It first crossed $100,000 on December 4-5, 2024, roughly six months after the deadline.

SourcesKiyosaki (X)·Archived post·Cryptonews·CNBC

Robert Kiyosaki

X (@theRealKiyosaki)

high confidenceJan 27, 2025

In RICH DADs PROPHECY-2013 I warned the buggiest stock market crash in history was coming. That crash will be in February 2025. ...

The prediction

That the stock market would suffer the biggest crash in history (his own post reads 'buggiest' [sic]) in February 2025.

What actually happened

No crash occurred in February 2025. The S&P 500 set a record closing high of 6,144.15 on Feb 19, 2025, mid-window, and finished the month down about 1.4% - an ordinary flat month.

SourcesKiyosaki (X)·Archived post·Business Today·NBC News

Robert Kiyosaki

X (@theRealKiyosaki)

medium confidenceJun 2, 2025

Do not say I didn't warn anyone. As predicted in my book Rich Dad's Prophecy (2013) the biggest crash in history is coming. I am afraid that crash time is now and through this summer. ...

The prediction

That the biggest crash in history was underway and would run through summer 2025.

What actually happened

No crash occurred. The S&P 500 recovered from the April 2025 tariff selloff and set new record closing highs from June 27, 2025 onward, continuing through the summer; per FRED daily closes, the index finished 2025 up about 16.4% in price (5,881.63 on Dec 31, 2024 to 6,845.50 on Dec 31, 2025).

Note: 'I am afraid that' asserts the claim while expressing regret, unlike a 'could'/'might' possibility hedge, and sits under the flat opener 'Do not say I didn't warn anyone,' whose function is to claim ownership of the warning.

SourcesKiyosaki (X)·Archived post·CNN Business·NBC News·FRED, S&P 500

Robert Kiyosaki

X (@theRealKiyosaki)

high confidenceOct 11, 2025

REMINDER: I predicted the biggest crash in world history was coming in my book Rich Dad's Prophecy. That crash will happen this year. Baby Boom Retirements are going to be wiped out. ...

The prediction

That the 'biggest crash in world history' would happen in 2025.

What actually happened

2025 ended with no crash of any kind after the post: per FRED daily closes, the S&P 500 finished the year up about 16.4% in price (5,881.63 on Dec 31, 2024 to 6,845.50 on Dec 31, 2025), its third consecutive double-digit year.

SourcesKiyosaki (X)·Archived post·First Trust·FRED, S&P 500

How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History, 2005-2009.

The prediction

A historic stock boom through the end of the decade; per the Globe and Mail, he made headlines predicting the Dow would hit 40,000 by 2009 - not yet page-verified against the book's own text, so kept out of quotation marks.

What actually happened

No boom of any size materialized. The Dow peaked at 14,164.53 on Oct 9, 2007 (about a third of the reported target), closed 2008 at 8,776.39, and bottomed at 6,547.05 on Mar 9, 2009 during the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Note: The dated subtitle itself is a specific, falsifiable, primary-source claim with a closed window, and the entry rests on that alone; the Dow 40,000 figure is the Globe and Mail's own characterization of his public forecasting record, not a verified quotation from the book.

SourcesBook (Internet Archive scan)·The Globe and Mail·CBS News (Swedroe)

I think the stock crash started in late April. This is just the first wave down...I think the crash really starts some time in early 2012.

The prediction

That the crash would begin in earnest in early 2012; per CNBC's contemporaneous report of the same appearance, that the Dow would fall below 10,000 in the near term before crashing to around 3,000 in 2013.

What actually happened

No crash began in early 2012 - the Dow's 2012 minimum close was 12,101.46 (Jun 4) and it finished the year up at 13,104.14. 2013 was the Dow's best year in over a decade: minimum close 13,328.85, year-end close 16,576.66, up 26.5% - in 2013, the Dow never traded within 10,000 points of the predicted 3,000 level.

SourcesCNBC

I think this is going to be a stock market peak of a lifetime followed by a crash very similar to the early 1930s. This happens once in a lifetime. [Separately, the same appearance:] I think this is the last rally in this bull market.

The prediction

A 1930s-scale crash within a two-to-three-year window (the book's subtitle, 'How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017-2019 Can Make You Rich'), with the post-election rally already the market's final top.

What actually happened

No bubble burst occurred in 2017-2019 and the rally was nowhere near the last: from the Dec 9, 2016 close of 19,756.85, the Dow never closed below 19,732.40 at any point in the window and ended 2019 at 28,538.44, up 44%. The sharpest setback in the window, the late-2018 correction, was a roughly 19.8% S&P peak-to-trough decline - a fraction of the 1930s-scale crash asserted.

Note: The 2018 correction is disclosed here so the entry does not appear to hide a partial hit; the claim is scored against its own '1930s-scale' magnitude and 'last rally' timing, both of which failed. The headline figure 'could plunge 17,000 points' from the same CNBC appearance is hedged and is not part of the scored claim.

SourcesBook (Internet Archive scan)·CNBC

All financial assets are going down. Absolutely sell your stocks. Stocks will go down 80% by September or October, though maybe defensive stocks like utilities and staples will go down 50%.

The prediction

That equities would fall 80% by September or October 2021.

What actually happened

The S&P 500 rose through the named window to successive record closes: 4,605.38 on Oct 29, 2021 and 4,697.53 by Nov 5, 2021, up about 7% from the interview-era level, with no decline of any size resembling 80%.

SourcesThinkAdvisor (archived)

In two to three months, the market will go down to 2,000-2,200 from what it is now. [In a separate answer in the same interview:] The biggest stock market crash of our lifetime will be in 2022. You've got to protect your money to take advantage of the sale that's coming when stocks go down 80%, or else you won't have money to buy.

The prediction

That the S&P 500 would fall to 2,000-2,200 within two to three months, and that 2022 would bring the biggest stock market crash of our lifetime, with stocks down 80%.

What actually happened

Two to three months out, the S&P 500 closed Feb 28, 2022 at 4,373.94 - down about 7% from the Nov 19, 2021 close, roughly double his target range. Across all of 2022 the index never closed below 3,577.03 and finished the year down 19.4%, a smaller annual decline than 2008's 38.5% - not the biggest crash of a lifetime by any measure, and no 80% decline occurred.

SourcesThinkAdvisor (archived)

I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we'll see in our lifetimes. [Separately, the same interview:] That's an 86% crash in the S&P and a 92% crash in the NASDAQ. And crypto, it's going to be 96%. So that is a big deal.

The prediction

That 2024 would be the biggest single crash year of our lifetimes: an 86% S&P decline, a 92% Nasdaq decline, and a 96% crypto decline.

What actually happened

The S&P 500 rose 23.3% in 2024, the Nasdaq gained about 29%, and Bitcoin roughly doubled - dozens of record highs and no crash of any size.

Note: This is the third consecutive re-dating of the same 'crash of a lifetime' brand Dent has issued (2021's two-to-three-month call, 2022's target, and this 2024 restatement).

SourcesFox Business·ThinkAdvisor (corroborating headline)